From Samples to Populations

STAT 20: Introduction to Probability and Statistics

Warmup questions

What kind of bias occurs when the individuals who choose not to participate in a survey have different characteristics than those who do?

1. Non-response
2. Measurement
3. Selection
4. None of these

Part c) Non-response bias

What kind of bias occurs when a data collection instrument is improperly calibrated and consistently misses the target in a specific direction?

1. Non-response
2. Measurement
3. Selection
4. None of these

Part b) Measurement bias

What kind of bias occurs when individuals chosen for the sample refuse to participate, and differ systematically from those who do participate?

1. Non-response
2. Measurement
3. Selection
4. None of these

Part a) Non-response bias

What kind of bias occurs when some of the selected individuals that participate in a survey may not be comfortable answering honestly?

1. Non-response
2. Measurement
3. Selection
4. None of these

Part b) Measurement bias

When participants give inaccurate, socially desirable, or untruthful answers—often because they are uncomfortable or sensitive about the question—it distorts the collected measurement.

What kind of bias occurs when the procedure used to draw the sample systematically excludes or underrepresents certain segments of the target population from the very beginning?

1. Non-response
2. Measurement
3. Selection
4. None of these

Part c) Selection bias

Concept Questions

The top plots are population distributions; the bottom two are sampling distributions of the means from many samples of size 200. Match numbers to letters.

Correct answer: It depends on the sampling process.

These sampling distributions were actually made from taking samples of size 200 with replacement from populations of size 100. Most students will assume this when they first answer and choose 1-B, 2-A. This is a good opportunity to cue them to think very carefully about exactly how it is worded, then give them time to discuss and revote.

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Scenario 1: Calling on the front row

This is the example from the notes, where the prof just takes a sample of size n = 18 from the first row. 1st year students are 10 times more likely to be drawn than 4th year students. The result is that most of the sample means are below the true population parameter (the blue vertical line).

How would the sampling distribution change if instead of calling on the front row, the Prof. put all 527 names on tickets in a box, mixed them up, then drew 18 names without replacement? Select the most dramatic change.

This describes a simple random sample, the sampling distribution will move up to be centered around the parameter.

Takehome: sampling variability for an average increases or decreases with changing sample size according to 1/sqrt(n).

Takehome: if there is little / no variability in the sampling process, there really isn’t much of a sampling distribution. It’s more like a constant and your only concern is bias.

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Scenario 2: Drawing names from a box

How would the sampling distribution change if, instead of drawing 18 names without replacement after mixing them up, the Prof. drew only 8 names without replacement after mixing them up?

The sampling distribution will still be centered about the parameter, but the standard deviation would decrease.

A follow up question if you’d like:

1. Returning to the “calling on the front row” sampling method and plot: what would happen if, by the end of the semester, 90% of students sit in the same seat every class period? Answer: in that case there would be very little variability from one day / sample to the next and the SD of the sampling distribution would decrease dramatically.

Worksheet: From Samples to Populations

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Break

05:00

Lab 8: People’s Park

This is a recent new article in Berkeleyside, the local paper, about the incredible lengths to which the university has gone to ensure that it can proceed with the development of People’s Park into housing.

If you’re not familiar with the debate (which has lasted many years and is ongoing), search the archives at Daily Cal and Berkeleyside for background.

This is a promo video produced by the University to make an argument for the project. This was released at roughly the same time as the survey results.

People’s Park Project

The University wishes to turn a university-owned plot of land called People’s Park into housing.

Opponents

• Advocates for the homeless residents living on site
• Neighbors who don’t want a tall tower built
• Historical preservationists who want to preserve it for its role in countercultural movement of the ’60s.

Proponents

• Advocates for affordable housing
• Neighbors who want the blight and crime gone
• Students who want easier access to housing
• City of Berkeley who wants more housing built

The Chancellor’s Survey

Chancellor Carol Christ

In fall of 2021, the Chancellor’s Office commissioned a survey of the Berkeley community to gauge opinions on people’s park.

In this lab you will gain access to this survey data.

Part I: Understanding the Context of the Data

Reference Materials

• Chancellor’s Email
• Background Methods PDF
• Questionnaire

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